Without Russia the An-148 is waiting for complete disappearance

All day monday there were conflicting reports about the fate of the an-148 – collect in voronezh Russian-ukrainian plane. Officially statements about the termination of its production refuted. Nevertheless, a number of circumstances allow you to do extremely disappointing for this machine forecasts. Stop cooperation will harm both Russia and Ukraine. Russia will stop production of short-haul aircraft an-148, despite the voronezh aircraft manufacturing association (vaso) import substitution, have informed RIA "News" referring to a source in the aviation industry. "Of great interest was the an-148, which was done in voronezh.

Interest was shown by both civil airlines and the ministry of defence. Unfortunately, politics proved stronger than reason and the previously existing mode of relations", – said the source. According to him, vaso ends assembly of the last two planes, after which the history of the an-148 as type is complete. An-148 – short-haul narrow-body passenger aircraft development Kiev design bureau. Antonov created in the early 2000s in cooperation with Russia as a replacement for the outdated tu-134.

This type of aircraft operate the airline "Russia" and "Angara" special flight detachment "Russia" and the ministry and the defense ministry. An-148 – the presidential board of the president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. However, at the voronezh plant to bury the aircraft is not in a hurry. Future an-148 will depend on the demand for this car, said the representative of you, the newspaper "Izvestiya". At the moment, the plant executes a valid contract with the defense ministry this year have to pass three an-148, in 2018 – two.

"Any change in the content of the contract was not", – assured the representative of the plant. In rostec also has denied the suspension of production of the aircraft in voronezh, said nsn. And yet the funeral of the an-148 is only a matter of time, says chief editor of the "Aviaport" oleg panteleev. It is just necessary to perform the contract and to finish the unfinished aircraft, which has already invested a lot of money. But the project is at an impasse.

If not 2017, 2018, will likely be the real end of history of the an-148 in russia. "Customer voronezh an-148 is only the ministry of defence of the Russian Federation, and the interest is only other Russian forces, in particular regardie. The political factor will not allow ukrainian companies to supply components for the production of these aircraft in voronezh for such customers. If, conventionally, it was about supplies to cuba, it would be no problems there. But export contracts for aircraft voronezh production is not expected", – says oleg panteleev.

Yeah and the Russian military would not want to depend on ukrainian spare parts. Besides, Russia is interested in promoting exports of the ssj-100, but not its direct competitor – the an-148. The defense ministry, by the way, i considered the option of replacing their park "Carcasses" on the ssj-100, however, has refused this idea. Because the ssj-100 may not work on unprepared soil runways is what can easily cope an-148. An alternative for the ministry of defence will now, most likely, turboprop il-114. He has a little less capacity is 64 seats against 75 the an-148, however, is not so bad.

"Range ilyushin machine was acceptable to the military customer, but in speed, of course, far behind. But it will have to fly on the il-114," – said panteleyev. "For the first time il-114 should be suitable for the military, and if his upgrade, he may become the new standard for defense", – said the first vice-president of the Russian union of engineers ivan andrievskii, while it is impossible to ignore the option of resuming production of an-148 of ukrainian parts. Only it is necessary to calculate and understand how beneficial such an option, said andrievsky. At least for the voronezh aircraft factory that would be a good solution.

Vaso does not want to lose important serial project. Now the company has two production programs: single-piece assembly of the il-96 and the assembly is little more than serial an-148. For il-96 top given the task to promote this machine, so the assembly of this aircraft will continue. But with the an-148 one way or another have to leave.

According to the kla in 2015, production of the an-148 has brought 4. 4 billion of total revenue vaso 10. 3 billion, i. E. Almost half. "But in recent years the volume of production and revenues from the production of an-148 was so small that we can talk about her loss. At this rate of issue it only provides employment in the enterprise in voronezh. From a social point of view well, but from an economic – not really," says panteleev. In the future, the place of the an-148 at voronezh aircraft plant can take the production of light transport aircraft il-112v.

"Probably in the next year, the plane successfully made its first flight and will continue to be deployed mass production in voronezh. This will allow you to replace one project with another", – says head of "Airport". The only problem is that the program of serial production of the il-112 will actually begin only after 2020, and until that time, the plant will be doomed to losses. But production at vaso will increase. If in five years it produced 15 an-148, il-112 production rate will be much higher – up to 12 cars a year, says andrievskiy. The fate of an-148 in Ukraine is also uncertain.

In Russia this plane albeit in small amounts, but is. In Ukraine, the same build at all. Although the ukrainian antonov has previously made a loud statement that will replace Russian components (about 50%) in this plane and begin its assembly. But in fact nobody knows what happens at "Antonov". "Ukrainian bank "Antonov" on forces to make so-called import substitution, rather the substitution of import from Russia import from Europe.

But whether this decision is economically justified? it will require a large development works, the follow-up test," says panteleev. In fact, the replacement of 50% of Russian components in the West will mean the creation of a new aircraft. For example, transport an-132д that at the end of march made its first flight, showed that, in principle, can assemble the plane without russia. An-132 is a deep modernization of soviet machines an-32 with installation of american avionics, turboprop engines pratt & whitney Canada pw150a, as well as other auxiliary equipment of Western production. But the draft en-132д lucky as they are interested in saudi arabia. The saudis ordered 80 of these aircraft, collected at home (not in Ukraine).

But whether they want someone- except Russia – to give money to Ukraine on the resumption of production of aircraft an-148? the probability of this is extremely low.