Sergei Glazyev: the Government operates on the principle "could be worse"

Doctor of economic sciences, academician of the Russian academy of sciences and Russian presidential adviser Sergei glazyev in an exclusive interview with the deputy editor of channel constantinople yuri pron'ko commented on submitted to the president of the economic development program prepared by the head of the center for strategic development alexey kudrin and the chairman of the stolypin club, boris titov, sergey y. , last week, of course, the main event was the st. Petersburg international economic forum. But it was preceded by a meeting with the head of the Russian state, where your colleagues have submitted their plans. However, there is only one real plan we know in more detail.

I mean boris titov and the stolypin club. In fact, the insult and the government, little is known, some very common phrases and some reference points, nothing more. Here in your opinion, why is the outcome of that meeting is missing from the decision?— well, apparently not expected the decision because the president under the existing constitution delegates economic policy to the government, monetary policy — the central bank. And the purpose of the meeting was the comparison, or presentation of two programs of three that are made today on the direct instructions of the president.

The third program, unfortunately, was not available, a program of the chamber of commerce, which was developed under the guidance of renowned industrialist konstantin babkin. I think she will also be in demand. As the president consistently puts the problem of growth in industrial production, growth of the real sector. He was not able to achieve the government priority development.

Because in a contraction of the money is no advanced development to be. After all, rapid development requires the application of advanced money supply. In order to get on the pace of growth as they are now, 6. 5% per year, you need to have investments of not less than 14% per year growth. That is, a 1% increase in gdp requires a 2% increase in investment.

It is a certain empirical regularity common to all countries. A 2% investment growth requires about 4% of the growth in the money supply. That is, if we focus our monetary policy on economic growth, we need to understand in order to raise economic activity by 1%, you need 4% to raise the money supply. And these empirical regularities, unfortunately, we also apply. As one of the monetarists, you cannot repeal economic laws.

So we live on these economic laws. When we compressed the money supply, we have no any priority development impossible, nor even simple reproduction. The flip side of this meeting is the policy that really is. No matter how decisions were made in the Kremlin, the central bank has announced its monetary policy for the next three years. Now the government is looking at a three-year budget.

The question arises: how do these programs that require an immediate response, can be woven into the fabric of real management technologies of economic management. Apparently, it does. It is the experience of all the programs that were shown both on the part of the authorities, and from the intelligent and productive elite. In fact, life goes on, programs are accepted, the goals are declared, but between words and deeds, in the words of leonid brezhnev, a huge distance.

And for some reason she becomes more and more. — but this deceit?— no, it's not deceit, it's just the lack of control of our economic development. Because we still live in a state of dogmatic scholasticism. This disease you know when you can talk a lot and never reply. That's about the same as today, the executive branch. — but this is when the child does so.

When adults — it looks weird. — 25 years these so-called reforms about which so much has been said on the forum, and have not provided us with no effective government, no effective basics of business. And the argument that we need more private enterprise and less government, we have passed many times, it's just words, for which no real mechanism of economic growth. In order to achieve a real mechanism of economic growth, need responsibility. And i go back to the president's instruction, which was given five years ago to launch a mechanism of strategic planning.

If we combine strategic planning with private initiative if we are in the framework of public-private partnership will come to joint plans of modernization and development of the economy, and on the basis of agreements between government and business can build a mechanism of indicative planning, where everyone is responsible for their part of the business development of investment for the creation of new jobs, modernization and development of production capacities, and the state will create conditions for these investments was lent. This, strictly speaking, the task of the monetary authorities is to provide the development of. Then we will be able to establish the mechanism of mutual responsibility, mutual trust between government and business, about which so much is said, but this trust is not added. It's hard work, which will force the bureaucracy to share power. Because now the bureaucracy pretends that she directs, and the business pretends that he does.

And so we have all the time is idle. In order to concatenate the initiative of business and government in a common program of development, you must have positive feedback when a business undertakes to develop the economy, and the state undertakes to create business for this condition, including to provide the economy with credit as an important instrument of advancing economic growth, investment financing. The fact that many people in the economic offices to focus not see the experience of China, to focus not notice the Indian economic miracle, which was beautifully presented in a forum where India was a key guest. Even in the same many beloved Europe. The European central bank again returned to the path of monetary and industrial policy.

Lend to the economy at a negative interest rate if the loans are in the real sector. And commercial banks are encouraging because they push the money in productive sector, providing incentives for investors. These examples of positive international experience, the recommendations of scientists were ignored, because those who today manages the money, so comfortable. No plans, no responsibility, no direct embezzlement, there is some profit.

The prosecutor has no questions, thank god, so to speak, all within the law. — but the impact remains. That is, in their hands the money supply. — so the forum, it should be said, places were very interesting. In particular, there was a lot of "Round tables" dedicated to modern information technology. In different angles were introduced to the features of the blockchain, which revolutionairy business relationships and allows you to build a system of trust, which provided no formal indicators, and the actual economic practice of a particular subject.

Was interested in questions of regulation of the information sector, electronic, digital economy that is rapidly developing, while the government almost do not notice. So i thought on one of the round tables, if we are in the inflation rate would introduce the indicators of the digital economy, including how cheaper today unit comPuting and information services how new appears, it may be, in this case, inflation would be 4% and minus 4%. While the central bank continues to compress, focusing only on the basket of the medieval section. These modern approaches, they are, but they seem to hang in the air. — not implemented. — yes, we terms of use of these new technologies, their attitudes to increase productivity, unfortunately, nothing but general words can't say. — the forum was preceded by a statement that literally shocked them all.

It is a question of words. The ministry of economic development said, or rather, leaked the information that growth pensions return in the next 20 years will not. Growth — 0%. This is perhaps the most shocking is the statement sounded.

And our countrymen do not understand what was going on, wondering how is this possible?— remember the song "All is well, beautiful marquise"? this here is about the opera. Incomes fall, investment falls, the competitiveness of the economy is reduced. Inflation seems to be able to hold. Therefore "All is well, beautiful marquise".

That is to say, our economy is stabilized. What we have lost 15 trillion products, minus five trillion are unable to make the investment, the population on 20% of the lost income, the bankruptcy of rolls — this is nothing like that. And this song, you might say, the anthem of the current economic bloc of the government. And the refrain: could be worse.

So, where else is worse?— their leitmotif that could be worse. Although, worse than ours, it is only, perhaps, Ukraine, for obvious reasons. Even brazil, which goes exactly the same way that we do. There are two countries in the world that implement the recommendations of the international monetary fund — Russia and brazil.

In brazil, people are more temperamental, so it is all visible. And we have people somehow adapt, thank god, have enough patience. And it is hoped that we will have enough time in order for the policy to deploy in the interests of economic growth. Intellectual capacity we demanded 20 percent. A lot of talk here on the forum about innovation, new technology.

So i was recently in mordovia. There due to the introduction of new technologies, creating stunning scientifically.