Charka, bacon, car

"April 12, 2017 in the trust "Remmontazhstroy" on the first mine group of "Belaruskali" in soligorsk has passed spontaneous meeting of installers. According to the agency, the chairman of the primary organization of independent trade union of miners of Belaruskali Sergei cherkasov, the staff of the trust refused to work, resenting a sharp decline in wage: compared with the beginning of the year, salaries of assemblers fell by half" (naviny. By). "In industry, this winery, which now often goes on vacation at his own expense, or pmk, where delay salaries for months, for such a penny to work makes no sense. All work in the district is the executive committee or the police. There are sitting their people.

Rest no work" (naviny. By). And that happened that long ago (very long ago) was supposed to happen and so long warned of the Belarusians. Their wages and living standards began to come into line with those that can provide directly the Belarusian economy. Everything that existed before was, so to speak, not entirely true. Largely specific standard of living (and a more specific economy) was due to nothing more than injections from the Russian budget.

It's just been so long that people have forgotten that might be some other way. As "Some other" option was considered "Magic euroBelarus". By the way, is still being debated in the Belarusian media space to live at russia's expense or at the expense of Europe (and who will give more!). The trouble is that the next few years Belarus will have to live at their own expense (and the more, the better). In fact, nothing wrong or unusual in this: most of the soviet republics (including russia), or otherwise passed through it.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union it was when the all-union economy first work is getting worse and worse. And then disappeared. And many had to survive. They survived as best they could.

The 90s was a difficult time and in the baltic states and the caucasus, and central asia. Who are interested in — check as sharply, for example, has changed the standard of living in sverhsekretnoj soviet georgia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. So that's nothing new, interesting, unusual in today's Belarus does not occur. Rb from a long time saved is not the former chairman of a collective farm and Russian economic assistance.

So the current crisis in Belarus is quite natural in nature, just that it was supposed to happen much, much sooner. As in neighboring Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania. "A pause, the Russian aid", which had to be used to reform the economy and create new industries, the elite of Belarus was used for freezing the situation. Such here the decision was made and it was made not in Moscow (there was a different policy), but just in "Sovereign Minsk. " and with 2011 rapidly "Defrost".

The starter was, oddly enough, a foreign policy issue (georgia/abkhazia/South ossetia). Belarus is a very small country, but somehow very "Cleverly" falls under the foreign large hand. An enviable art. Of course, the financial crisis in Belarus had internal reasons (state control of the economy and a negative trade balance), but the trigger was it "Denial".

Which, incidentally, proved an extremely low competence of the government. Recognition/non-recognition of South ossetia was extremely serious "Pain in the ass" and demanded that the Belarusian authorities eminently diplomatic talents. This was a serious "Challenge" for the country's leadership. And Belarus "Brilliantly" failed the exam.

Of all the possible (and there were not two and not three) was chosen as the most stupid, the most problematic and the most controversial. That is the promise of mr. Medvedev to recognize tskhinvali. And admit! worse imagine something impossible.

It's the wrong decision. Not to be unfounded: the rb had a lot of solutions on the South ossetian problem: for example, from the very beginning to very clearly condemn the georgian aggression, to send humanitarian aid. But clearly not to recognize South ossetia (not breaking "International law!). Fair, right and logical.

From the very beginning. Or in advance to completely withdraw from all caucasian cases (there have forgotten the Belarusians?). It does not concern us (closed tightly!). Worse, but also honestly.

Or even before the conflict persistently offer their "Peacekeeping service", and after the war "To be offended by all militarists" and "Close the gate". Had a lot of options. But the Belarusians chose the "Sly" and a very bad decision. From that moment Russia begins to cut aid.

That is, before the Belarusian diplomacy stood a very serious issue. And the Belarusian diplomacy is completely screwed up. Incidentally, it was the start of interesting contacts with the imf -- would Russia "Help" at the time of the crisis of 2011? of course. But the Belarusian foreign ministry has done everything to avoid this.

Finally, the relationship on the line Moscow-minsk have finished the ukrainian crisis (and to a lesser extent the crisis in syria/karabakh). Somehow, in the minds of Belarusians there is a soviet relic, as "Gratuitous economic aid. " the ussr, in principle, it is provided, but not quite "Free". And usually the answer required the political and ideological loyalty. You can sneer about how all this needed was.

But loyalty had been made. Belarusian "Invention" is economic assistance without any reciprocal loyalty (we are an independent state!). So, if the consequences of non-recognition of abkhazia/South ossetia was a tough, "The annexation of crimea and separatists" (and this is written in Belarusian newspapers) put a fat point in "Economic assistance to the fraternal Belarusian people". The movie ended, should pay for everything.

Playing "Boys-octobrists" of the Belarusian leadership. Crimea was a personal project of Vladimir Putin. The most important and significant project. And any "Fronde" in this question he saw as a personal insult.

And as we all know, the decisive opinion in the matter of selection of the "Help" just for him. That is, before the foreign ministry of Belarus (and personally to mr. Mackay!) were set on a fantastic conflict of interest problem: what to do in terms of "The return of the crimea"? the decision was not long in coming. Today's dramatic fall in wages in Belarus — it is just largely a consequence of the "Ukrainian crimea", "Friendship with turchynov" and the supply of diesel fuel to the apu.

Well can't Russia provide economic aid to a country that does not wish to recognize its territorial integrity and to respect its foreign policy. It has something humiliating in the end. About the same deal which Lukashenko suggested to Belarusians: material well-being (chark, bacon, car) in exchange for non-participation in politics — took place in relations Moscow-minsk. Political loyalty in exchange for economic preferences.

The trouble is that Lukashenko does not just "Violated the terms" of the transaction. The trouble is that he refused to comply with them. In fact, all these years, he pointedly ignored. Cynically that is to say: we are an independent state and no one decree! then there is something to negotiate? then Belarusians have decided to interfere in one pile: a common history, language, federal state, independence.

Social principles and oligarchs. And mixed thoroughly with a large spoon. And yes, this mess is nothing to understand or prove. But it is necessary to simplify the situation, to come back, so to speak, on the source.

And everything becomes crystal clear: there was an agreement, plain and simple, is economic assistance in exchange for political loyalty. The Belarusians had no hands not twisted, you want to take the job, do not want to give up. After the ukrainian conflict to talk about some kind of political loyalty to the official Minsk quite funny. And sooner or later it had to happen (with the other republics it happened much earlier). Translation relations on a purely commercial footing.

"The last republic" — Ukraine been through it recently — as a result living standards have fallen several times and according to this criterion Kiev closer to central asia. That's exactly what the is happening with Belarus. Standard of living does not just fall, it will fall to the level of third world countries. The saddest thing is that back he's not coming back.

Here in Kiev, for example, not only run the contest (verbazende!), but going to shut down the subway. But what can you do, metro is very expensive for third world countries. And even its capital. That is, after the rupture with russia, Ukraine is gradually (and painfully!) gets used to the new life standards.

Trying to "Sit on the neck of Europe" failed. Now the same process has started in Belarus, has already had serious political consequences. And as expected in Belarus, the meeting of Putin and Lukashenko last, it was stated that debts must be paid. The debt for gas, too.

Not having waited for alexander g. From the meeting, not that. In principle amount to Russia is small and the question can be addressed, but this option implies a completely different format of relations (no attacks and spitting in russia). Surprised many early in the year the lack of a coherent russia's reaction to the arrest of the "Pro bloggers" in Belarus.

No wonder — it was clear from the beginning that this is quite a dirty provocation. The calculation was done on a rigid reaction of Moscow, in order to shout loudly that "We hurt". Instead, the Belarusian elites were given a great opportunity to explain to the population what is happening with salaries, prices for communal, work, pensions and living standards in general. However, costly to alexander grigorievich friendship with peter.