Royal attrition

Saudi arabia is one of the most ambitious, proactive and aggressive players in the middle east. Claims to be the leader if not the entire islamic world, its sunni and at least the arab part of the force riyadh to fight in Yemen, Syria (hands controlled by saudi intelligence militants) and to support radical salafist groups and movements in several countries of asia and Africa. However, the finite resources of the kingdom, relations with allies deteriorate before our eyes, the desire obviously exceeds the capacity. This makes the ksa leadership maneuver, avoiding irreversible failures – at least in Yemen and Libya. Consider the situation for him in those countries, basing on materials of experts ipm a.

Bystrov and p. Ryabov. Taiz. Intrigas palace during the visit of U.S. President j.

Trump in riyadh saudi leadership in the face of the heir to the crown prince and defense minister of ksa m. Bin salman has made maximum efforts to resolve the crisis in relations with the uae due to the Yemeni conflict. He intended to resolve this problem before the arrival of the american guest, hoping to provide him with "A monolithic alliance of sunni states of the gcc", but failed. Saudi arabia held before the arrival of Trump's round of consultations with the uae, the results of which were very modest.

21 may in the saudi capital on the issue of Yemen, spoke at the highest level ben m. Salman and crown prince of abu dhabi m. Zayed al-nahyan. However, they did not come to a consensus on the operation in aden proclaimed may 11 ethnic South council (myus) at the helm of which is a former governor of the province of aden a.

Al-zubaidi. He was fired "Internationally recognized" president of Yemen hadi in response to the refusal of the South Yemeni harakat and behind them uae to allow presidential power to protect the airport of aden, where is the main flow of weapons (including Ukraine) to force hadi. Abu dhabi after the decision of hadi's resignation al-zubeidi withdrew the loyal uae South Yemeni troops from the bridgehead for the offensive on hodeida, disrupting the operation before it started. Attempts m.

Bin salman to convince the uae to abandon support for myus failed. In the end, in Yemen today, there are two parallel governance structures that are supported by different forces in the arabian coalition, which means it split. It is extremely troubling to riyadh. Crown prince of abu dhabi recorded during a meeting that myus, including 26 representatives of the five South Yemeni provinces, needs to work on a permanent basis.

Thus abu dhabi, taking advantage of the miscalculation of riyadh and hadi, solves the main for the uae challenge in this area: the creation of conditions for the separation of South Yemen. So abu dhabi took a step toward the neutralization of hadi as the president of the "Legitimate government of Yemen. " during consultations with the bin salman 26 may zayed al-nahyan stressed the requirement of immediate departure of the Yemeni president de jure. Supporting the appointment of al-zubaidi head myus, uae strengthens its position in the South of the country and the region create a powerful triumvirate. In addition to al-zubaidi includes the former head of the South Yemeni harakat and security forces aden h. Al-neck, which also tried to dismiss hadi.

The third member of the triumvirate – a native and governor of hadhramaut h. Ben brick, who tried to remove the post of the central government. All three minions abu dhabi. Thus, there is a mutiny of winimei with the support of the uae against as "The legitimate government of Yemen", and riyadh. All of this reduces to zero the role of the hadi of Yemen on the political platform, since he can't even be in the country.

In the South it did not want to see Southerners and emiratov. The North is controlled by the housetop and power of the former president a. A. Saleh.

Remains abyan where he came from. However, there is the emir proclaimed himself a former member of "Al-qaeda" and a descendant of the emirs byanski t. Al-fadhli, supporting regular contact with the office of general intelligence of saudi arabia, but he share power with anyone unwilling. The aggravation of the situation in sanaa, where there were mass protests over unpaid wages on state and municipal officials, and was arrested a supporter of saleh a.

Chased that supported these protests, experts regard as an event that can however seriously to undermine the monopoly of the houthis in power. This situation makes it unrealistic for the saudis attack on sana'a and hodeidah, even with the support of Trump. Americans are ready to supply the saudis with intelligence from satellites and intercept data, but to participate in the assault on the positions of the housetop ground forces will not. So given the collapse of the arabian coalition riyadh remained without support on the ground, and hence no real levers of influence on the situation. The end of Yemeni campaign planned after the capture of sana'a, is not yet visible.

Attempts to place the departed with the front units of the uae and South Yemeni allies to attract Sudanese, pakistanis and other mercenaries of significant success in the offensive against the houthis and saleh's forces will bring. The only way to compromise with the uae, that is the resignation of hadi and his government. While disagreements uae and ksa in the approach to the choice of the Yemeni allies and the future of the state-administrative structure of this country is hardly disposable. In the development of the situation in Yemen may 29, pro-government forces in the city of taiz announced that they had seized the republican palace. The fighting there is going on with varying success in 2015.

Since the breakthrough to the South of taiz through the strength of the housetop and units of the republican guard of ex-president saleh controlled the citadel palace. Its strategic location on the commanding heights in the Eastern part of the city, which gave control of the forces the opportunity to correct the conduct of hostilities. On 25 may, the soldiers of the local militia stormed the building of the medical college, located under the palace. The next day they reached the Western gate, but to capture the palace itself was able after only three days.

Loss cosity measured by the attackers, about 100 people. About their dead, they are silent. The capture of the militia of the palace has a purely symbolic value. Control over taiz, it does not: a significant part of it is the housetop and supporters of saleh. The main logistic routes in the area controlled by the opponents of the "Legitimate government" hadi.

They left most of the neighborhoods and concentrated their forces around the perimeter of taiz, which allows them to make raids inside the city, destroying fortifications. In this basic sense of ownership of the taiz – control of the alpine passes that allows you to go to the valley, expanding the attack on sana'a. Therefore, taiz called the gateway from the North to the South: there is only the shortest road connecting the two parts of Yemen. But the whole route is in the hands of opponents of the arabian coalition. The coalition argue that the citadel taiz liberated "Government troops" of Yemen, advancing from the South.

But it is not. Southerners after the liberation of aden refused to advance on taiz, and then to sana'a. This is due to the traditional enmity between tiscali and unaimously, including due to the fact that in the civil war of 1994, tizzy conceded to the South the troops of saleh. In this regard, after the liberation of aden ksa was limited to the landing of the insurgent militia taiz weapons and ammunition, it is possible to release from the groups of supporters of saleh and the houthis part of the city's neighborhoods.

It was envisaged that the rebellion needs to clear the road coming from the South arabian forces of the coalition – winogradsky harakat. After their commanders refused to attack, deliveries of weapons from the air to tascam stopped and resumed only in early 2017. Before riyadh shifted to karibskoe direction to organize a blockade of sana'a from the North. But this plan failed: the tribes in marib, committed to the union with the party "Islah", behaved very passively. Therefore, the saudis once again began to probe casscoe direction.

They have created a loyal salafi militia, and as coming from the South forces decided to use the troops from abyan, commanded by the son of president hadi nasser, Sudanese and local tribal militia. The urban militia taiz and tribal groups in the province are completely different forces. Not all tribal leaders taiz support hadi, this makes it difficult passage of his troops with heavy equipment through the passes: without the support of local tribes is impossible. And former president saleh, whose troops occupy the commanding heights in the province for a long time was governor of taiz and knows the local sheikhs.

Its easy passage from sanaa via taiz to aden three years ago proved it. Taking taiz implied from two directions: freeing the city and clearing the coast, moving then through the mountain passes and along the coast of the red sea at the last under the control of the houthis ' major sea port of hodeida. On the coast acted uae and they control the South Yemeni harakat, is not without problems liberated in april, the port of mokha. However, after the crisis in saudi-uae relations uae and enouement of the operations on liberation of taiz has left, maybe forever. Will the saudis and force hadi to complete the job yourself, you need to take control of the main military base taiz "Khalid" 50 kilometers West of the center of the province – the question.

The troops of saleh to leave do not intend to. So with the capture of the citadel of the imam in taiz fight for this province moves into an active phase, with unpredictable result. A united front section levitrabuy ksa in Yemen, bordering the kingdom is more important for riyadh than the situation in the "Remote staging" the struggle for dominance in the arab world. As a consequence riyadh turns to the support groups operating in Libya, where was defeated in clashes with NATO, the uae and Egypt. So, associated with "Al-qaeda" Libyan group "Ansar al-sharia" told to disband, recognizing significant losses among the soldiers and the almost complete destruction of the command structure.

The radicals called on the Libyan islamists to create a "United front". A number of ame.