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The us president's visit to the middle east overgrown with rumors even before began. Some focus on the Israeli part, others in arabic. Leaving aside the real and the declared us policy towards Israel, will introduce the reader to american plans for Syria and Iraq, including disagreements between Washington and Ankara, but also consider the theme of "Arab NATO", based on materials of the expert ibv y. B. Segovia. "Arab NATO" as a method producagainst reuters reported that president Trump uses a trip to saudi arabia to urge the gulf countries to form similar to the NATO force in the middle east.

The saudis, who probably inspired the idea to the american leader for three years trying to implement this scenario. The first was prince bandar bin sultan, who put forward the idea, "Saudi foreign legion", which remained on paper due to the change of king and the financial costs, although it was realizable. Then came the initiative of creating a "Pan-arab armed forces," under the auspices of riyadh, which then dominated the league of arab states. The initiative stalled – officially because of the debate about models of organization, financing, quotas, each country's troops.

In fact – because of the traditional arab world mutual jealousy. Ambitious but dimwitted heir crown prince mohammed bin salman has decided to revive the idea of regional armed forces and initiated the creation of "Muslim anti-terrorist coalition" to combat ISIS (banned in russia). Riyadh entered in the list of participants by the main muslim country, forgetting to ask them about it, and more about this alliance, no one heard. Then the saudis initiated the creation of the "Arabian coalition" operating in Yemen under the auspices of the struggle against the expansion of the shia and Iran. The result is a mess, the refusal of some countries to participate, the requirements of the uae to change the command and remove it from saudi commanders.

Ended the crisis in relations between the ksa and the uae (and previously are) and the actual collapse of the coalition. In the region there are now at least three forces that are not going to accept anyone's supremacy. They are alliances, uae, Egypt, qatar, Turkey and ksa with a satellite in the face of bahrain. The confrontation between them is in Libya, Yemen and the horn of Africa (conflict in SoMalia and uganda between uae-Egypt-qatar-Turkey). In Syria at the stabilization of the situation in the areas of de-escalation will inevitably break out confrontation along the axis of Turkey-qatar and ksa.

We are not talking about their attitude to the "Muslim brotherhood", which are struggling Egypt and the uae, but the support of qatar and Turkey, despite the presence of a common threat in the face of shiite Iran. What kind of military unit you can tell?most likely the idea of an "Arab NATO" appeared in the attempt of the us military industrial complex to master the entire market from the point of view of simplification of the marketing logical, since no military wing of this association can not be. The fact of Trump's statements on this subject makes talking about the very low qualifications of his advisers. The president will have to accept the fact that the gun trade of the United States will have to separate with each country. The kurds, yes, turks – нет17 may online resource mcclatchy reported that a few days before the inauguration of the Trump white house was studying the possibility of conducting operations against ISIS in raqqa.

Former assistant to the president for national security michael flynn allegedly prevented the operation, which is opposed by the turks, after rejecting the request of the obama administration to approve it. The resource notes that the general received more than 500 thousand dollars for the protection of the interests of Turkey. The operation was carried out after flynn's dismissal. He has held the position of assistant at the Trump national security in january 2017, but a month later he resigned because of "Not fully informed vice president michael pence about contacts with the Russian ambassador in Washington Sergei kislyak".

After the media reported that he was in the ministry of justice as "Foreign agent" and represented Turkey. Note that this is an obvious slander. In fact, in the period of obama's second term after the entrance of videoconferencing in Syria, the U.S. Began to look for ways symmetrical response.

It turned out that the power unit of the United States failed to predict the plans of Moscow on the syrian track and not had any options to enhance counter-terrorism activity there. Attempt along with Turkey to arm "The moderate opposition" ended up writing off a loss of $ 500 million and the transfer to Syria from Turkey a few dozen militants who have joined the ranks of the radical "Dzhebhat en-nusra" (banned in russia). Us saw the futility of an alliance with Turkey in Syria and moved to the support of the kurds of the democratic union party (dup), disguised as "Forces of democratic syria" (sds), pouring in there are small groups of assyrians and arabs. The kurds were the main support of the USA in Syria, including the capture of raqqa. The refusal of the obama administration to attack raqqa was not caused by the maChinations of the pro-turkish lobby in Washington.

Because of the difficult personal relations between obama and Erdogan talked about the successful lobbying activities of the turks in the white house is not necessary. But taking raqqa was prepared as a gift for hillary clinton, who already presented the mistress of the oval office. Raqqa was supposed to be a step in the victories of Washington over the ISIS. The first stage was planned mosul, the capture of which the Pentagon has thrown all forces.

On two fronts, the forces and means of the U.S. Was not enough, it demanded increase in troops, which obama wanted. After the first attack on mosul fell, the need for further action in this area disappeared because of the victory of the Trump. But bet on the kurds, the Pentagon has maintained. They had invested money, and the us military in Syria was based in the kurdish areas.

There they expanded the infrastructure of the local airfield for heavy transport aircraft. No alternative pds the us does not. To use turkish troops and they control the grouping for the assault on raqqa, the U.S. Military does not want due to the current difficult relations with the turks.

The more that Trump needs a victory over ig, and to share it with Ankara he is not ready. Washington took a course on formation in the North of Syria controlled by him hold by the example of Iraqi kurdistan. Hence the skeptical attitude of the state department to plan the establishment of zones desclee in idlib. Washington understands that such a scenario gives the province control of Turkey, which will soon lead to clashes between pro-turkish and pro-saudi factions for control in the region. De-escalation and perezagruzite of the analytical agency "Stratfor" analysis of initiatives of Moscow, Ankara and tehran on areas of de-escalation in Syria indicate that it is unlikely that Washington will accede to this plan because it promoted russia.

Any part of Washington will signal about the official, not mediated by that in the medium term for the new U.S. Administration is unacceptable. Leakage from the secretary of state r. Tillerson, "The reset of relations with Moscow at the moment is unreal," illustrates this. For russia, it is logical to suspend the process of inviting the United States to cooperate, not to create in Washington the illusion that Moscow is looking for ways of surrender in syria.

American analysts share the assessment that the initiative for areas of de-escalation was another diplomatic victory of Moscow. She worked to advance its proposal knocked out of the hands of Washington Trump on the establishment of "Security zones". The americans will publicly support the initiative of Moscow, but will do everything possible so it was not implemented at the originally conceived plan. On the syrian track, Washington will focus on ISIS and the fight against "Al-nusra dzhebhat" (now "Tahrir al-sham") will only be referred to. The reasons for this are two.

First, a bloated public relations aspect of the "Defeat of ISIS" forces of the pro-american coalition. Mosul, the Pentagon plans to take before the start of ramadan (end of may), and raqqa during the summer. Second, leaving alone "Dzhebhat an-nusra" casts doubt on the implementation of the plan on areas of de-escalation, because it will actively sabotage. The establishment of such zones, according to the americans, gives impetus to the beginning of the struggle between the various factions of the armed opposition that has already been observed by the clashes in Homs "Dzhebhat an-nusra" with "Jaish al-islam" or confrontation "Ahrar al-sham" with "An-nusra" in idlib.

There is a struggle for influence and right to monopoly control in a particular area of declaratii on line ksa-Turkey. Proof of this is that the proponents of "Dzhebhat en-nusra" tried to establish control over the checkpoint on the syrian-turkish border near idlib. It is necessary for the absorption of other opposition groups in the area and especially true that, for some data on this channel again started on delivery us anti-tank тow intended for the free syrian army (fsa). If you consider the supervision of Ankara over the the fsa, is justified to assume that the deliveries resumed in the interests of pro-turkish groups, which indicates some compensation from the USA to the turks because of the claims about the strengthening of the kurds from the pds. Analysts of "Stratfor" are sure that such gifts will not be able to affect the crisis in U.S. -turkish relations because of the kurds.

He will continue to push Ankara toward alliance with Moscow on Syria that Washington does not like, but to prevent this the capture of raqqa, he is not capable. We can say that the cooperation on issues of de-escalation, the United States will not go based on the interaction with the Russian side in Syria from the short-term interests. The main condition of progress in the implementation of the project of zones of de-escalation is ever-increasing confrontation between pro-saudi and pro-turkish opposition groups for control in idlib. Otherwise, the area of de-escalation in idlib is in danger of becoming a stronghold of jihadist groups, where they will begin expansion into the rest of syria. The defeat of ISIS.