The gas war and its consequences

After reviewing the expert opinions, until valentin zemlyansky, a former press secretary of "Naftogaz", it is possible to bring intermediate results of the gas of the battle of stockholm. Peremoga "Naftogaz of Ukraine" over "Gazprom" has existed prior to the announcement of the termination of contracts with "Naftogaz". Then "Peremoga" it immediately turned into a defeat, or zradu. In fact, gazprom has already terminated the contract on gas deliveries "Naftogaz": he found the grounds for non-renewal of gas supplies in march and returned the advance payment. Now there is a legal registration of the termination of this contract.

The second and most important contract for gas transit to Europe continues to operate in its original form. "Asymmetric" decision of the stockholm arbitration for both contracts, "Gazprom" has submitted the appeal, therefore, to consider these appeals, it turns out, have to act old contracts, and gazprom has begun the procedure of their dissolution. The fact that these gas contracts seen by no means all experts, they represent a kind of commercial secret, so the majority of experts describe the consequences of such a turn of events on the basis of known precedents. As initiated procedure termination of the contract, all payments for their costs related to the final termination of the contract, that is, the payment awarded gazprom fine in 2. 56 billion dollars is possible only after the official termination of the contract for gas transit. If the appeal of "Gazprom" will not be satisfied. Apparently, the termination of the contract for the transit will last for years, so the whole sweet divide those billions in Ukraine is a division of skin yet not killed bear. Europe, it is desirable to pull the termination of the contract for the transit to the commissioning of the "Nord stream – 2", "Gazprom" hardly will prevent this from.

In principle, such a contract can be terminated in six months, but most of the gas the stars say about two or three years. While the threats to sp – 2 no one, except Poroshenko, stutters. The more obvious consequences of the actual termination of the contract for the supply of gas "Naftogaz". Here's the latest, that is, immediately got "In the money": this is a magical gas collapse "Stick". He says that naftogaz is virtually bankrupt.

The last years he bought a "European" gas, and in fact, gazprom's gas, but at a price for Europe plus the European margin. In other words, "Gazprom" sold gas to Ukraine is not on the contract price, with discounts, and at the European price, at a premium, thanks to the patriots of "Naftogaz". The "European" gas left the money, so haven't made any reserve fund gas, which so puzzled the experts. It is strange that i can't guess, although this is a natural explanation of the crisis "Fasten". To get out of this situation, "Naftogaz" had hoped due to the supply of cheap Russian gas that was supposed to start after the completion of the stockholm arbitration, beginning with the month of march. Ukrainian experts say that gazprom was inclined to start gas supplies, but the "Sad decision" of the arbitration, all radically changed.

Now "Naftogaz" will have to continue to buy "European" gas, very long, and gazprom will continue to benefit from Europe's margins for its gas supplies to Ukraine. What "European" sum across "Gazprom" it is hard to say, but it will be obvious compensation for imposed penalties. Therefore, "Naftogaz" zastarel that will put the account "Gazprom" the price difference "European" and contract the gas, but in response received only a contemptuous silence, and the expert community too. All accounts are now required to submit to the stockholm arbitration. According to the latest reports, naftogaz is now urgently seeking for a loan to continue to buy "European" gas and pay the margin of Europe and "Gazprom", let's see how he will succeed. Generally, termination of contracts "Gazprom" is a way not to execute rewrite of the stockholm arbitration contracts with "Naftogaz".

They will be in limbo until the official termination of the contracts with arbitration, that is up to three years! during this time, so much can happen, and most importantly, someone will have to sign new contracts with "Gazprom" for transit, and it won't be easy and it won't be "Naftogaz". Stop by gazprom in direct gas supplies to Ukraine and a final transition to "European" gas will have dire consequences for Poroshenko. First, if "Naftogaz" to support European transit will be enough for him and his hangers-on transit fees? secondly, the inevitable rise in the cost of gas for the population, and can take advantage of this nazi patriots, they have threatened Poroshenko with consequences for the dispersal of myholiday. "Naftogaz" stated that he understood the risks, and announced that gts of Ukraine is taken under armed guard. Here only from whom?.