Get out of "demographic hole"?

Somehow, until now, we have a programme of support for young families in the regions develop in isolation from employment, the results of economic reforms not associate with fertility. But these things are interlinked. Meanwhile, as suggested by the director of the center for strategic research Mikhail bocharov, population reduction is directly related to the decline of the economy. During the years of reform more than 17 million reduction in the number of employed in real sector production. Have closed 80 thousand enterprises. It is clear that the family of the young unemployed in the first place will not think about how many children to have, but about how to survive elementary. But there is another problem: the work does not guarantee wealth needed by the family.

Millions of Russians can't get out of poverty. According to the center for socio-political monitoring of the ranepa, more than half (55 percent) of the population receive wages below 25 thousand roubles, one-third earn less than 15 thousand a month, and about 7 million people – have only the minimum wage, amounting to 7. 5 thousand per month. The rest pay more, but not much: their incomes were still below the subsistence minimum. Deputy prime minister olga golodets called this situation unique, linking it to the poverty of working people. And although the deputy prime minister figures differ somewhat from ranepa data, all the evidence suggests that the overall situation with the quality of life of Russian families is alarming. The hse estimates that by may 2017 the income of the active population of childbearing age fell to 31 months in a row. In other words, for almost three years the level of life of Russian families has steadily decreased. In the end, the Russians impoverished by 20 percent.

Falling incomes of the common people celebrate and academics ranepa. If only was not worse?worldwide the standard of living has learned to raise, stimulating economic growth and productivity. Then business thrives and employees honestly a raise. We have, fear of inflation, engaged in the destruction of poverty on paper. Some officials argue in this way: let nothing grows, if only was not worse. The hole in the budget will cover the additional charges.

All forces will throw on the alignment of the minimum wage and the subsistence minimum. If the minimum salary will reach 11 thousand rubles, rosstat will not have to report about the millions of poor Russians. It's not about that, because the policy of increasing the minimum wage someone will have to curtail its activities or to pay salaries in envelopes. Although it can not be ignored. It is unlikely that people receiving even 11 thousand rubles, will cease to consider themselves poor. The formal increase in the minimum wage to the subsistence minimum of able-bodied person, though in some measure will help to mitigate the situation but not correct it.

And to fix, will need to raise not only the minimum wage, but the amount of social benefits. Zone bestfeature indicators such as subjective poverty. According to the same rosstat, in the first quarter of 21. 3% of Russian households reported that they have enough money only for food, and it is not enough. It's one thing when 11 million offer to live a lonely man, and quite another when a miserable budget prescribed a single mother. Even under the most stringent standards adopted in the state, a living wage for a single person with a child – 20 rubles 457 (a salary less than this level, according to rosstat, receive about one-third of workers). For full families with one child needs at least 31 158 rubles, so as not to starve to death. It turns out: the more children, the more revenue deficit.

Meager child allowance, of course, is not able to solve the issue. The average statistics on russia, says head of international capital markets, institute of world economy and international relations ras yakov mirkin, only retouch the sharp corners and not showing the whole picture. At a relatively high level of life in the capital scientist have counted from 15 to 20 of these "Disaster areas". This is a huge area, larger than many countries. For example, in the republic of tuva, the gross regional product per capita is 66 percent lower than in Russia on average – 2460 dollars a year per person. According to the observations of another famous scientist, the deputy director of the institute of world economy and international relations yevgeniy gontmakher, our poor have changed consumer behavior, to save steel in the stores. And not like such a large drop in income, he says, but people have a feeling that will not be better. They buy less of what i would like to buy, and choosing cheaper goods from those that bought earlier. Where more reaucrats spending and population is on the decline.

For the fourth year in a row the birth rate is falling in almost all regions of russia. In 2014, rosstat recorded 1,942 million live births, while in 2015 is already less -1,940 million last year – even less – in this 1,888 million (the latest figures) only seven months children were born more than 11 percent less than the same period last year. And this despite the fact that the number of abortions has decreased. And it reduces the fertility rate (number of births per 1,000 people). Today, he is at 11. 4, while a year earlier it was about the 12. 8. Demographic surge is observed except in the chukotka autonomous district in june 2017 there came to light almost a third of people more than the year before.

But even these record-breaking figures can not block reduction (more than 107 thousand) of the number of births in the entire country. If in chechnya the birth rate is falling only a few percent, in most regions the decline is measured in double digits. And while the statistics does not even hint at the recovery of the population. "The process of reducing the absolute number of births" recognize the ministry of labor and is associated with the "Demographic pit" 1993-2006 years. Because, they say, and the current generation of potential parents has not worked. And nothing can be done about it in the coming years we are doomed to reduce the population. Indeed, from 1987 to 1993 the number of births decreased almost two times, and now entered the age of childbearing women and men of that time. But not all problems are dumped in a pit, even if demographic! lost work hard to feed their families.

And in order to raise the industry, we have no machines. But even if we bought them – not enough turners or millers. To prepare for the year two million experts it is impossible, as well as dramatically increase energy capacity, and they have to the limit. Powerful generators, the supply of which recently "Caught" in siemens, we do not produce. Fees and poporului working in the oil or gas fields, do not complain to life.

But all the oil will not be recorded, and in shift workers do not each take. Where people who want to have children, to work, if every tenth plant in russia, as stated in the august review of the industry of market research center of the higher school of economics, is on the verge of bankruptcy? businesses produce less, acquire debt, cut employees. Share absolutely prosperous industrial companies with a stable financial position that can afford the development and modernization, has remained, according to the scientists, the hse, no more than 12-14 percent. Those fortunate who have not left the state. They fall to bonuses in the form of direct budget and project funding, open access to government contracts, foreign economic activity, prepared for other preferences. But tellingly, among the leaders there are practically no high-tech sectors (except chemical industry and individual plants of the military industrial complex).

Even in the key to the Russian sector of neftedobycha, scientists noticed the hse, is dominated by outdated technology, the wear of the equipment exceeds 55 percent. But if taken as a whole, one third of the capacity of the mining industry on existing regulations is completely worn out. Business giving the Russians the job, still lives by the rule: squeeze out inherited the production of everything possible, and there though the grass not to grow. Nothing but condemnation of such an approach is not, but business people can understand. Yes, formal taxes are not raised and fees business grow. After the transition to the cadastral valuation of land and real estate increased rental rates, abolished a significant portion of tax benefits (primarily property taxes), tightened tax administration. All this led to the fact that the fall of profits in the economy, on reports about the unprecedented growth of budget revenues.

You say, what does this have to do with demographics? the most direct. Yes, if tax revenues increase, and poverty the money there. Today. And tomorrow?. Forcing factory owners to skimp on equipment, technologies, salaries, the government is pushing millions of people to a miserable existence, the business goes into the shadows. But no matter how hard life was, and what far-reaching conclusions did not now fashionable economists, sociology & statistics record the improvement of the social health of Russian society.

This is indicated not only by opinion polls, but also very specific facts: the country's falling rate of violent crimes, suicides and alcohol consumption. More optimism, gentlemen!despite the gloomy forecasts of the decline in the socio-economic situation did not entail a change for the worse. It is impossible not to recognize that all of this, of course, a consequence of state policy: from tightening the rules of sale of alcohol to law enforcement reform. Contributed and technological breakthrough: a completely new layer of activities and fun for social groups traditionally are in the risk zone. The youth began to spend less time on the street for illegal and dangerous activities, but mostly to the internet (although there is not all right) or plays computer games. But it is impossible not to admit that Russian society, with all his apparent pessimism, has become the main source through which the country could.