USA vs North Korea: springboard for Trump?

A possible military confrontation between the us and the dprk has long been a subject of various discussions. Talking about it in print media, on television talk shows, the internet, on benches and even in the kitchen. But these conversations, unfortunately, is quite pointless, and even well-respected television experts is limited, often, statements like "It's impossible, because North Korea has nuclear weapons. "Admittedly, this is a very strong argument. But if he exhausts all possible motives of the parties and, as a consequence, scenarios? now that's controversial.

And now we're going to talk about the problem honestly and without closed eyes in horror. First of all, let's note one aspect. Ironically, a purely domestic policy, american. For Trump's attack on North Korea could become as obvious failure, guaranteed finishing his career as president and a real springboard, and turns it into a powerful political heavyweight of america. The only question is, what will be the outcome of this military adventure. But you have to understand that for an american president it bad enough. The specter of impeachment hanging over him with certainty, and he can't even rely on the republican party of the United States, which was nominated for the presidency.

That is, the temptation to resolve some of your issues with the help of a "Small victorious war" it certainly is. And it will be the more, the stronger will strangle the Washington political elite. And if this "Little war" would be really victorious, Trump at least crush "Fifth column" within the republican party that will allow him much more confidence to face the future and focus on the solution promised to the voters of the election issues. That is, we can with some surprise to say: the worse it will go tarnowskie Washington works, the greater the likelihood that the conflict between the dprk and the U.S.

Will move from the political sphere to the military. And for a bit of motivation. Factor in that we traditionally do not pay attention, but who deserves it more than anything else — the motivation of seoul. I think no need to explain that South Korea wanted unification of the country under its auspices.

And it's not only in the traditional feelings of patriotism, love of country and its divided people, half of which is suffering under the heel of the North Korean communists. You need to understand that such a union can be extremely beneficial in the South Korean industry, which will get millions and millions of not too demanding of workers. Dramatically increase the geopolitical weight of the united Korean state — it is the result of combining a powerful South Korean industry will receive a significant boost as North Korea's missile industry and nuclear capability. Yes, most likely, both of these industries will have to convert to civilian production.

But even in this case, Korea will get its space programme, will strengthen the positions in the nuclear industry, and will be able, if necessary, almost instantly convert it into real nuclear missile deterrent. Strictly speaking, it is the South Korean interest is the second building block, which can strengthen the foundation of possible aggression to be acceptable to american strategists parameters. Quite powerful, well-trained and equipped South Korean army can take on the main burden of the ground operation. And her national identity promises some additional bonuses, which usually have no classic invaders.

However, the benefits and positive preconditions do not cancel the fact that a military conflict with North Korea could lead to political disaster in the United States. So, to decide on war with North Korea, the americans will be difficult, no matter what benefits were promised to them chema victory. In fact, the main threats to the beginning of us military action against pyongyang, only two, and both are associated with the successful threat of use of nuclear weapons against the U.S. And its allies. The most obvious threat — the attack on the United States itself. Let me remind you — although now primarily discusses the threat of North Korea to attack the island of guam, which, strictly speaking, is not legally a territory of the United States, pyongyang is still able to strike at the aleutian islands.

About the same distance, but this is real, "Sacred" american soil, a blow to which even in theory cannot be somehow politically to soften. Another threat, which was recently mentioned by the Russian president Vladimir Putin, the proximity of seoul to the border with North Korea, and thus its vulnerability to long-range artillery, which can also be used for a nuclear strike. To counter this threat even more difficult than to provide missile defense, which means we can with high probability to assume that in the event of a conflict on the Korean peninsula seoul will undergo a nuclear attack. This will lead to the loss of several thousands to several tens of thousands of people among the civilian population — the victims are large enough to South Korean politics much thought about whether the possible benefits of the resulting costs. The military intrigue of the coming conflict lies in whether these threats to nullify or at least reduce the likelihood of their realization to some minimum. But here is, oddly enough, "It's not so simple". First of all, you need to get rid of the belief that North Korea is capable of conventional means to resist the combined military efforts of the us and its allies in the region.

Alas, it is not in a few hours, the dprk will not remain even a hint of a workable air defense system, a day will be defeated all the key military facilities, which you can get from the air, in a week there will be no bridge, no power stations, food warehouse and so on. As if someone did not want to return, no fighting spirit is not able to reverse technological superiority, which in this case is overwhelming. Of course, there are many wanting to challenge the last statement. And the course will certainly be numbers, matching the number of aircraft, anti-aircraft missile systems and so on.

But not to get involved in a useless debate, just recall — exactly the same military experts believed the aircraft in Iraq, yugoslavia, Libya. How it ended, we all remember. You can also predict that the us air force can destroy all the missile launchers of any power, which will be known to american intelligence. And about destroyers, approached the coast of North Korea, with high probability will bring down medium-range missiles aimed towards Japan, if any still manage to deploy and run.

But there remains the problem of silo launchers that may have with North Korea and that, given the closed nature of North Korea, it is difficult, if not impossible, to "Calculate" using a satellite or even human intelligence. Moreover, in the latter case, it is impossible to tie the information received to the terrain, with an accuracy suitable for application of meaningful punches. That is, little use from what your agent said, in what area is the mine launcher of the enemy is to bomb the territory of several square kilometres is about as promising as looking for a needle in a haystack. It would not even preemptive nuclear strike — the stability of the silos is very high, and even in the case of using nuclear weapons for assured destruction should a direct hit.

However, in this case the question is not whether the United States to destroy North Korean missiles, but only whether enough americans have the detailed intelligence about their location. If yes, we with high probability can predict their destruction. Another important point is how much North Korea do nuclear warheads. According to some estimates, their number may be calculated with a couple of dozen.

It's a lot, after all, pyongyang, in general, it only takes one successful application to military adventure has ceased to be acceptable to Washington. But you need to understand that if the americans will hope to destroy the lion's share of these munitions during the first surprise attack, the likelihood of conflict will increase dramatically. This is due to the fact that the United States has not only about ships, capable to destroy flying missile, but deep enough technically mature system about object that can shoot down an incoming warhead on an american city. And given the fact that the "Recipients" of the North Korean missile is not so much to organize such a defense is technically quite possible, and it is possible that this is already being done or made.

That is a bunch of preemptive strike, front-line and about the last frontier about the facility looks quite powerful. To break it North Korean missiles will be very difficult, if not impossible. And given the fact that the time here is working against americans, it is clear their desire to defeat the dprk before armed pyongyang will be dozens and hundreds of new missiles and warheads. The second critical moment of possible nuclear attack North Korea in seoul.

And here in the us and South Korea, it looks even more difficult. Distance of thirty miles is quite a work for modern heavy artillery, and if North Korea has created a nuclear artillery munition, a threat can be considered very high. But it is not absolute and ultimate. For example, we all know that Israel has for quite long been on the weapons system, "Iron dome", which effectively cope with reactive ammunition short range. Work on improving the system, not advertised, but being literally from the moment of putting it into service, and we can only guess about what results have been achieved Israeli designers.

In addition, the americans themselves have considerable experience in the field of laser weapons, those.