Iraq's claim "complete victory over ISIS" clearly premature

"The presence of the "Islamic State" in Iraq is over forever!" – announced the Iraqi command that reported the complete liberation of the second largest city in the country, mosul. However, there are plenty of signs that ISIS militants* in mosul remain. And most importantly – what will happen with ISIS even after their departure from the city?the ministry of defence of Iraq has declared the full liberation of mosul, the second largest city in the country and in 2014, the stronghold of the group "Islamic State*". The militants of the ig* "There is no district in mosul.

The presence of ISIS in Iraq has ended forever," declared the Iraqi defense ministry. The operation to take mosul, which the us and its allies served as the main event in the war against ISIS was launched in october last year. If you believe the Iraqi military, a series of storms led to the victory. It is expected that the "Historic speech" on this occasion will be the commander of the Iraqi army, prime minister haidar al-abadi, reports tass. Baghdad army air helped force the international coalition led by the United States.

So basically, the americans can record the battle for mosul in the asset. But note that this tuesday the associated press reported: Iraqi troops were forced to reduce the pace of advance due to counterattacks of the militants. The offensive of the jihadists was observed in Western areas of mosul, which was previously considered to be purified from ig. And on thursday, after the triumphant Iraqi military, began to receive reports that in mosul, "Continues the operation to expel the militants from the old part of the city. "On the ruins of mechanicalanimal sky news arabia reported: in the ranks of ISIS have been split, so when earlier on thursday the militants were ousted from the ruins of the mosque an-nuri, the battles were only five fighters. A week ago, militants blew up the monument of the xii century, when they approached the army special forces.

Now the site is completely cleared of ISIS, according to the military. Meanwhile, this mosque was the real stronghold for militants: in 2014, the group's leader abu bakr al-baghdadi declared it as the creation of an "Islamic caliphate" and called mosul, his capital. The de facto centre of the ig has now moved from the syrian city of raqqa (which is also the long-announced offensive) in the syrian city of mayadin in the province of deir ez-zor. As for mosul, for the first nine months of operation, this almost one and a half the city has left nearly 900 thousand inhabitants. On the restoration of the city will take many years and billions of dollars, say Iraqi authorities. To rebuild have at least the airport, train station and university. The militants can use the tactics of the taliban military analyst anton Lavrov said that if reports about the complete capture of the old city is confirmed, "It is likely that this will be the final liberation of mosul".

According to him, this is a very serious victory of the Iraqi military, "But to completely eradicate this infection will not succeed. ""All the resources of militants, including ammunition, within so many days of fighting was to be spent. The ig has no human resources to provide in mosul further resistance," Lavrov told the newspaper view. The expert recalled that in recent time, the militants of the "Islamic State" was seriously blocked, was completely suppressed the possibility for reinforcements, receiving ammunition. "So those who sat in the boiler, and had spent all that they had," – said Lavrov. According to the expert, after leaving mosul from the militants of the ig will remain controlled by large settlements, so they have to go to the rural areas of Iraq. "But to strip the countryside much more difficult.

They can arrange there own cells, just as did the taliban in Afghanistan, and to bide his time for a new attack", – says Lavrov. It is too early to make a victory speech"In reality, units of the 3rd Iraqi army division has moved in recent days only at 200 meters and took control of the territory where the mosque an-nuri", – says head of the research department of middle east conflicts and the armed forces of the region of the institute of innovative development anton mardas. "Today the Iraqis have said that it seems to be in these ruins should be the prime minister al-abadi. This post is designed for information noise. But i don't know how to ensure the safety of the prime minister in the area where just a few hundred meters in residential areas are the militants," mardas said the newspaper view. He explained that several areas of mosul, including coastal, adjacent to the tigris river, remain under the control of terrorists "Islamic State". Allegations that the city is only a few dozen militants, not baseless and is aimed at the "Demonstration of the determination and the fight against ISIS," says mardas.

Moreover, the statements of the Iraqis that they "Reflect attack" ISIS*, saying that they are opposed not dozens of people, and more formidable force. However, in the coming weeks the remaining areas can still be eventually taken under the control of the Iraqi army and police. But it will not mean the departure of ISIS from Iraq. The ig has prepared the way for otstupleniya recalled that the Islamic State was preparing to take mosul back in 2015, when about a serious assault no one had ever dreamed. To do this, the ig was forked. External transactions led destroyed in 2016, the abu mohammed al-adnani. And the "Shura council" ("Advisory council" – "The legislature" is responsible for transmitting instructions of the leader of the grassroots structures – approx.

Opinion) was "The mythical man whose pictures does not apply". In terms of the capture or destruction of the khalifa, he can nominate himself for the position. "Similar things can be said about many leaders of the "Islamic State". No one particularly knows that is a military command of the ig," – said the expert. In addition, Iraq still has pockets of ISIL in the so-called baghdad belt around the capital. These militants can benefit from the support of the population, which facilitates them to organize terrorist attacks in the capital. Difficult situation in the provinces bordering Iran – there is a particularly strong ethno-religious contradictions.

In addition, the strong position of the terrorists in anbar province on the syrian desert. "On the syrian-Iraqi border, there are tunnels, which at one time was used even saddam hussein, and driven out of Iraq, "Al-qaeda", – said the mardas. – as practice shows, dozens of preachers, the commanders of ISIS have a network of agents in the provinces of Iraq and Syria, in refugee camps. After some time, they can revive, to organize a new and very efficient group. The more ig as the brand will continue to exist after the defeat of their enclaves in Iraq, and a dozen other countries", – summed anton mardas.