The question in the ticket - the crisis: a test for the government mishustina

People, even those who have little interest in the problems of the world today it becomes clear that the world is changing. How will this world of tomorrow is impossible to predict. Experts give conflicting predictions. Politicians are calling for U.S. action. It became clear that nothing good in the near future is not expected.

Some part of the population in terror it creates everything that will soon disappear from the shelves. Someone starts to buy the currency, believing that the Russian ruble will soon turn into paper. But most bitter experience endured crises, just waiting. If we ignore several major cities, we can say: Russia is in a state of reverie.

The Economic crisis has spawned a pandemic coronavirus?

Funny to watch the attempts of some politicians and economists to introduce into the heads of the people thought that the collapse of the world economy is to blame coronavirus. What is it? Complete confidence in the stupidity of the main mass of its own citizens? Or a lack of understanding of the changes that have occurred in the world? Even today, when grown up, the fruits of the reform of education, the overall literacy of Russian citizens is quite high.

Forecasts of the crisis, which will be in 2020 year, appeared for a long time. The bubble cannot grow indefinitely. You can look at the materials of a conference of economists last or early this year. Almost always referred to a global economic cataclysm. Here is one example of this prediction, which was published on 10th January this year in the press:


Moreover, economists have clearly described, and further development of the situation. Unlike the first quote, is to check the accuracy of the forecast we can't. The crisis is just beginning. So we will just accept the forecast as a prediction.


The question May arise about why the Russian government did not react to such predictions. It is obvious that in work of such conferences was attended by those economists who then participated in the development of materials for the budget of the Russian Federation. And who said that such calculations were not?

We traditionally say that Russia quietly survive the drop in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel. This price was budgeted for the years 2020-2022. But if you look at the materials for the draft budget, that the calculations made by the Ministry of Finance taking into account changes in the cost of oil, you can see the project-shock. Falling prices for our oil to $10 a barrel.


So, the crisis was not a surprise to most governments. He was expected, and therefore had time to prepare and create conditions for "smoothing" consequences for the population.

The Russian government knows the "purpose" for which the impact of the crisis

We are often told that to predict where in the first strike of the crisis impossible. Moreover, the majority simply believes that the main thing you should pay attention to is the tax and other revenues, the exchange rate and incomes. I will not argue. But ask today have a simple working man from "zamkadya" about the dollar or the Euro, and with almost 100% probability will see a quizzical look or hear the direction in which he will advise you to go.

Revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons? Yes, they will be reduced. And seriously enough. I have data for 2009. Then tax revenues fell by 61%! Oil really is the lifeblood of our economy. In 2018 the revenues from oil and gas accounted for 46.3% of total revenues.

But look what happened with other sectors of the economy. Let me remind you, oil in 2009, only 5 months have lasted at a price below $70. Industrial production in Russia fell by a quarter! Remember what then became our car. Drop in three times! Engineering has been cut in half. Construction fell more than 30%!

Here they are, target! Blocking access to "blood", the crisis does not destroy as many oil and gas industry (here it is clear that the price of hydrocarbons this year if I'm not back to pre-crisis, it will be quite "palatable" for the world economy), the impact is applied to the industries that are quite difficult to revive. Factory restore is possible, but to return to the market problem.

Variant of actions of the Russian government in crisis

Before you begin to predictpossible government actions mishustina, for which the situation was a test, it is necessary to recall that all the previous crises started in exactly the same way as it does now. The fall in oil prices. So it was in 1998. it was in 2008. So it was in 2014. And the destructive consequences for the economy happened only because Russia simply it was not possible to answer calls. We didn't have that notorious "safety cushion".

Today, this "cushion" is. Today, we have the time to spare. We have the ability not just to preserve what has been achieved, but to change the existing reality. So, to change the reality in the economic sense of the word.

What is happening today in the oil market? Falling prices almost "halved" the production of shale oil from the United States. The production of shale oil at a price below $ 30 per barrel became unprofitable investment. And how would the American President nor encouraged business to continue production, the business began to turn the program of shale oil.

In various sectors of the economy is serious, on the verge of collapse, the fall. The world economy is reeling no worse patient in the period of crisis. Many corporations are seriously considering liquidation or sale of the shares of unprofitable enterprises. Even understanding that the crisis is not eternal, does not save the company from ruin.
Pull the ticket if the ticket: the crisis. And it could indeed be for the Russian government examination for matriculation. The actions of the government of the Prime Minister mishustina can go down in history as an example of work for the state, an example of service to Russia. But the government this may disappear with time, as all the previous ones. Melt away like the morning mist, which quickly forget...

So what you need to do today? First, in terms of severing economic ties. caused by coronavirus, it is necessary in the shortest terms to restore the industrial enterprises in the regions. Moreover, it is necessary to reconstruct the system of connections of local industry and Federal corporations. And it is quite possible.

Second, to continue financial support of agriculture in all regions of Russia. As life has shown, food security of the country comes to the fore. And in a time when many experts predict the drop in agricultural production this year, it gives some additional possibilities of obtaining profits from exports.

Thirdly, it is necessary to closely monitor international market shares of companies. It is no secret that quite a large number of Russian enterprises and corporations today, thanks to the liberalization of the 90s owned by Western investors. Need to respond quickly to the appearance at auction of the shares of Russian corporations and to return them to Russia.

The Situation when our resources are foreigners, indeed absurd. And they own a stock in defense plants. This practice needs to stop.

Advise, of course, easy. It is difficult to do. Difficult including the fact that there will always be those who are foaming at the mouth will scream to normal for our society style: "the Government is anti-people!" How many times I've heard and read that "it would be better the money to pensioners gave". Then, when the decision had been correct, such loudmouths disappeared somewhere.

The overall situation in the economy today is really serious. And the world will be different. Here only as? And do we need to care about the world? Today we have to think about their own country, their own people. Let's see how to deal with our Ministers headed by the Prime Minister Mishustin.