New challenges for Russia: the unemployment situation

Last December, the then Minister of labour and social protection Maxim Topilin gave an Outlook on the labor market in Russia in 2020. According to officials, the unemployment rate in the advancing year will not exceed 4.5 to 4.7%, that is, to remain comfortable for the economy December's level.

Government promises not to allow unemployment

Rosstat confirmed the words of Topilin with concrete figures. According to the Agency, "labour force aged 15 years and over 76.2 million people. Of these, 72.7 per million people were classified as engaged in economic activity and 3.5 million people (4.6% of the economically active population) – as having no work or income classes, looking for work and ready to start in the next week". In bodies of service of employment as unemployed was 664 thousand people.

Hardly less than a quarter of this base is somehow radically changed. However, now that Russia has faced unprecedented challenges of falling oil prices, the fever on the stock and currency markets, the threat of the deadly coronavirus, the forecast is a retired Minister does not seem voplotilis in reality.

Judge for yourself. The first challenges the new challenges faced by tour operators. Sales of tours have fallen in all directions more than three times and the next week you can completely stop. Second – the carriers. This is due to the ban on international and Charter flights.

Then went on increasing. Canceled sports and cultural events, political and economic forums, are translated into distance learning students and students, the order of the Ministry of culture for coronavirus are closed all Federal cultural institutions.

These solutions are in a release of staff, albeit temporary. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has allocated from the reserve budget of 300 billion rubles, "to ensure the priority needs for costs and support industries and citizens" and said he will not tolerate rising unemployment.

The opportunity the government has. Has accumulated substantial reserves. Means of them can be used to pay the salaries of the remaining jobs to the state. To pay sick-lists of people placed on a two-week quarantine.

Who will shift their business costs

With the business more difficult. Even such a powerful company as "Aeroflot" after a stop of the international flights and closure of some offices of sales of tickets offered to employees who have unused vacation, take advantage of them.

The Press service of the company asserts that the question of reducing the staff is not. On the contrary, "Aeroflot" will try to save the team. Because it is not so easy to prepare aircrew and specialists terrestrial services. Indeed, the current difficulties are all considered as temporary.

Pandemic coronavirus, according to expert estimates, the world must overcome in the next three to four months. A little more time (4-5 months) will need to stabilize the oil market at the new price levels. The same time (4-5 months) is required in accordance with the legislation to reduce workers. So, to prepare staff for dismissal much sense yet.

However, this situation applies to successful companies and responsible business. We are more accustomed to the fact that many executives and business owners solve their problems at the expense of consumers and their own employees. Thesis "will quit some will find the others" have taken root in the minds of the representatives of the so-called irresponsible business.
Look at the tourism industry, which has already been promised government support. As told "Interfax" press Secretary of the Russian Union of travel industry Irina Tyurina, entrepreneurs require industry "to recognize cancellation of travel due to pandemic coronavirus force majeure and cancel the provision on the refund to customers the full cost of travel in case of impossibility to visit the country in connection with the epidemiological situation."

Otherwise, the tour operators threatened bankruptcy of their firms, and release of staff. This is not an isolated example. Moscow media reports about the problems encountered by now the sphere of public catering of capital.
The Occupancy of cafes and restaurants fell by 20-50%. The business incurs losses. In order to avoid bankruptcy, he begins to reduce costs. The first of them is the maintenance staff. It is in this industry usually do not reduce, but simply fired. The reason is easy to find. Poorly washed plate, sideways glance visitor...

As you can see, new challenges facing Russia, is already reflected in the labour market. It is very sensitive to crises. For example, in December, when Maxim Topilin made his optimistic forecast, the number of officially registered in centers of employment of unemployed jumped compared with October by 3% (to 664 thousand), including 1.6% – a week before the mentioned speech of the Minister on the TV channel "Russia 24".

Then the big problems there was no business – usual new year's plans. Now call several. How much they moved the labour market, is difficult to assess. Even China, which seems to be already selected from the epidemic of the coronavirus, reported a fall in the two months of industrial production (13.5%). Figures on the rising unemployment in Beijing yet.
One thing is Clear – the unemployed in Russia will increase.It is a sad consequence of any crisis phenomena in the economy.