Will the new Russian-Turkish party and who shines victory?

Watching what is happening in Syria, especially the three downed Syrian aircraft, you feel more than twofold. On the one hand, as if President Putin twice, and the Minister of defense Sergei Shoigu six times buried ISIS (banned however in Russia so far). Who, then, so successfully to repel the Syrian army in the city?

Apparently, a ISIS-2. Which in Russia is still not prohibited, is not destroyed by our bombs and missiles, but he was still ahead.

But so began the next round, and the conflict began to get involved in other regional powers. Followed by some of the world.
The Most interesting that each of the participants in the events in Syria their goals. Moreover, these targets are so different that the conflict between some countries seems quite real.

Especially now, when the moment of Russia's entry into the war passed in fact, five years.

But it's in the title, I went about the relationship in the region, Russia and Turkey, elaborate on how it is interesting to develop these relationships. If they can be called.

Episode 1

November 24, 2015. We remember that incident, when the sky over the Turkish-Syrian border F-16 Turkish air force shot down a Russian su-24 bomber. Interesting not as a show of force by Turkey as the reaction of Russia.

Expect the Press raised a howl, the public was outraged, all senior managers spoke on the topic, as a result, Moscow imposed economic sanctions against Turkey. Tomatoes, resorts...

However, all is passed and all that. And very quickly. Turkey forgiven, and started her again to cooperate. Well, very much like in the Kremlin of Turkish money. Because I was very quickly completed the "Turkish stream", which gave a good income who need. And removed all of the sanctions. Instead of some vague apology from Erdogan.

Episode 2

The Second episode, which is a vivid illustration of the relations between Russia and Turkey, Putin and Erdogan, was the purchase by Turkey of the Russian air defense systems s-400.

I Emphasize that Russia is not sold, and Turkey bought. The initiative came from the Turkish side, but the Russian was sold, despite the fact that the buyer was a NATO country, with the second army in the block. Indeed, this war, whom his own mother...

Erdogan began to demonstrate independence in full.

It Seemed that Putin and Erdogan seem to have agreed on who is doing what in Syria. In the language of diplomacy this is called "division of spheres of influence." But the problem is that each of the leaders of the two countries are very differently understood as it is necessary to furnish your actions in Syria.

What really has been on the sidelines a small but fruitful meetings between the leaders of Russia and Turkey, of course, we'll never know.

However, it is possible to imagine, especially based on what Erdogan is doing today.
And the President of Turkey, continues to demonstrate independence. His program is quite simple and can be traced without problems.

Erdogan did not at the time venerated the rebound Assad. Whether using it as an argument in the talks with Putin, whether relying on militants LIH. But it could... And then "ally" of Russia in the region would become part of history. Like Saddam Hussein, for example.

But, not overthrowing Assad, Erdogan could really bargain with Putin. And like the Turkish leader no less, and to create a "grey" buffer zone in Northern Syria. The width of the zone 30 km in length is "only" 800. Almost all of the entire Syrian-Turkish border.

Guess there's oil there?
In addition, Erdogan is seriously expected to return "to their historic homeland" about four million Syrian refugees by Turkey in Syrian controlled territory.
And Idlib. Idlib is not just a point on the map. It is in fact a reservation, such as the area of de-escalation, which moved the opponents of Assad from different groups, but mainly those who are supported by Turkey. The reservation was arranged on the initiative of Russia, like as not to spill unnecessary blood.

However, this scenario "worked" about how the Minsk agreement, that is not working at all. The ceasefire was continually violated, with both sides fiercely accusing each other. Well, just as Ukraine and the Republic of Donbass. As fiercely and just as ineffective.

Well, in the end, in January this year began what was a long time coming. That is, the sides just grabbed each other's throats.

Episode 3

Assad's Troops began to strike not only the units of the Syrian opposition, which was Pro-Turkish oriented and supported by Turkey and by the Turkish military, which were placed in the sector.
It is Clear that for each such impact, the Turks replied in a much more powerful strike on Syrian government forces.
27 Feb. The mass strike of the Syrian army directly by Turkish troops. Followed the next requirements personally from Erdogan the Syrian army to get out of the line of demarcation.

The Syrians, the Turks inflicted a very severe blow. It is noteworthy that at the same time Russia sends to the shores of Syria two frigates ("Admiral Makarov" and "Admiral Grigorovich") with cruise missiles "Caliber" on Board, as well as the BBC "Orsk".
Turkey said it was ready to block the Straits, but in the end missed these ships.

However, over the last two days the Turks, it is not straining, he shot down three Syrian aircraft. Yes, Frank aviaplan su-24, but was shot down.

That now begins, may be called another "strangewar." That's just this war to a new level. It is not about what statements and claims are exchanged militant groups controlled by different parties to the conflict and the countries that control the region.

The Countries that control the region – Russia and Turkey. Syria in the face of Assad is not even trying to demonstrate independence. At least, on all claims of Turkey towards Syria answer from Russia.

Good or bad?

My opinion is clever. And does not cause illusions.

Episode No. 4. Latest

February 28, the Turkish side is blaming everyone else (or rather, blames the Syrians, meaning ours) that allegedly "Syrian" planes attacked the convoy of the Turkish military.

The representative of the Russian centre for the reconciliation of the parties to the Syrian conflict says that the attack on the column was applied not "Syrian", and the Syrian air force. And in this column, the Turkish military was never supposed to be any, and if there was, the Turks themselves to blame for that are not brought to the attention of its military presence in the column.
In response, the Minister of defence of Turkey Hulusi ACAR practically accused Russian officials of lying. He said that the Turkish Ministry warned the Russian military about the deployment of his soldiers, and "Syrian" aviation these places just beat, including cars military ambulance.

A Vicious circle. "Syrian," that is, Russian aircraft did not bomb, worked just Syrian. Who is wrong and who is right to be long.

But here we should not look at the raging politicians and military officials, and top officials.

If you rewind the tape of events ago, you can see that sooner after the next/next meeting/phone call between erdoğan and Putin was at least some progress in the direction of constructive, today it does not even smell.

Today, all conversations between top officials only serve for a protection and advocacy intentions. That is, for putting himself "white and fluffy" and the denigration of the neighbor.

All very logical. In Idlib, too, so it all began. Everyone just bent over backwards to demonstrate his desire for peace. And absolutely the same training manual in Donbass all advocating for peace, we fight for it no one will.

Who wrote the scripts...

But in fact once held a telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan (according to the press service of the AP) was uttered platitudes about the concern over the situation in the region.

— Mr, the escalation in Idlib – it's sad. Is annoying.

— Vladimir, I fully agree with this point of view.

— Need to do something...

— Definitely!

Well, in the end the Turkish army was hit on the Syrian heartily by staging a massive attack in the history of his illegal stay in the Syrian land.

Interesting way to relieve tension.

More and more experts are beginning to consider direct confrontation of Turkey and Russia. While theoretically speaking looking at the ceiling. Of course. It would be interesting make that happen.

Putin responded by telling me that we don't want anyone to fight in an interview with TASS.



But we are not talking about the defense. We are talking about Syria...

It is Clear that the "approximate" the media already threw a tantrum luxurious, telling its readers how we are invincible, and therefore to fight with anyone not going.

And it's just wonderful that won't. For if not to fight and not lose.

Turkey has the second strongest army of NATO. And the entire block behind his back. It is clear that the entire unit is not needed. To block the Straits of Turkey can own, just look at its fleet. I can.

And closing the airspace over Turkey and with the support of Azerbaijan (which is in fact a partner-an ally of Turkey) generally can significantly complicate the life of the Russian contingent in the extreme.

In General, the script is drawn is not the most pleasant, and it should be discussed separately. There can be any number of scenarios.

The worst situation is that Erdogan starts to play from a position of strength and just take what he wants. The claims of the Turkish leader to supremacy in the region and the Shah's throne — for anybody not a secret.
As well as the fact that Erdogan is an ally only Erdogan. All the rest of the tales to believe.

While it is Very difficult to say how far you can go hand, but the fact that this time the Russian-Turkish confrontation is played on the side of Erdogan and his advantage is, unfortunately, the bitter truth.

And Yes, it is unlikely there will swinging ICBMs and all sorts of the "Poseidon". Here, as in the card game, overdosing is impossible. Will peel the entire community.

A Difficult situation, a difficult choice. We can only predict and see how our leader will be able to play this difficult party.